So, here come all the questions. What are the implications of this weekend's rivalry game between BYU and Utah? Obviously, for Utah, it means a MWC title and a BCS berth. The real question is this. If BYU wins, will it be enough to boost them above Boise St and give them a BCS berth. Your guess is as good as mine, but here is what I think.Earlier in the year, no. 24 TCU beat no. 9 BYU. TCU essentially plays the same schedule as BYU with the exception of Oklahoma, who beat TCU. After beating BYU, TCU jumped nine spots to 15 in the USA Today's coaches poll. Now before you start doing the math (i.e. no. 14 BYU beats no. 7 Utah = jumping more than nine spots) remember that was mid-season. This game will be played at the end of the season. You may wonder what's the difference. Some even think that a win at the end of the season carries more weight.
It is true that a loss later in the season is harder to make up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that games later in the year carry more weight. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that they actually carry less. The BCS computer rankings use averages, therefore each game carries less and less weight as every other game is played. Let me give you an example.
Suppose you were to take the price of a hamburger in three different locations and find the average price. Let's say the prices are as follows:
location 1 - $3.50
location 2 - $3.25
location 3 - $7.50
The average of these burgers is $4.75, which means that obviously the burger in location 3 carries a lot of weight. Now let's add three more locations.
location 4 - $3.00
location 5 - $3.25
location 6 - $3.50
Now the average of all six locations is $4.00. So you can see that each location carries less weight. The same thing happens with BCS computer rankings. As you accumulate more games, each game carries less and less weight.
Therefore, I don't believe that BYU beating Utah will boost BYU enough in the computer polls to surpass Boise St. However, I think it would put BYU one rank below them.
But wait there are two other components to the BCS standings - the human voters in the coaches poll and the harris poll. This is where I think BYU will surpass Boise State. An impressive victory over a no. 7 Utah team will give BYU a stronger resume than Boise State, even if they do end up undefeated.
So my thoughts are, yes, BYU does still have a shot at the BCS. They are going to have to beat a decent Utah team, but I think they can do it.
1 comment:
The reason I don't think BYU should jump ahead of BSU in the polls (IF BSU and BYU both win out)is that the true head-to-head comparison has to make too many assumptions about each school. I am a BYU fan but not blinded by my fanaticism. BYU isn't the best football team out there. They have the best coach out there in Bronco Mendenhall, though.
This has been another great season for BYU football. Face it, we will never be allowed to win another National Title with the BCS system in place and in an "insignificant" conference. If BYU was after national football prowess, which it is not, then we would need to become an independent and play as many BCS schools as we could schedule.
Post a Comment