Road to the BCS

So, here come all the questions. What are the implications of this weekend's rivalry game between BYU and Utah? Obviously, for Utah, it means a MWC title and a BCS berth. The real question is this. If BYU wins, will it be enough to boost them above Boise St and give them a BCS berth. Your guess is as good as mine, but here is what I think.

Earlier in the year, no. 24 TCU beat no. 9 BYU. TCU essentially plays the same schedule as BYU with the exception of Oklahoma, who beat TCU. After beating BYU, TCU jumped nine spots to 15 in the USA Today's coaches poll. Now before you start doing the math (i.e. no. 14 BYU beats no. 7 Utah = jumping more than nine spots) remember that was mid-season. This game will be played at the end of the season. You may wonder what's the difference. Some even think that a win at the end of the season carries more weight.

It is true that a loss later in the season is harder to make up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that games later in the year carry more weight. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that they actually carry less. The BCS computer rankings use averages, therefore each game carries less and less weight as every other game is played. Let me give you an example.

Suppose you were to take the price of a hamburger in three different locations and find the average price. Let's say the prices are as follows:

location 1 - $3.50
location 2 - $3.25
location 3 - $7.50

The average of these burgers is $4.75, which means that obviously the burger in location 3 carries a lot of weight. Now let's add three more locations.

location 4 - $3.00
location 5 - $3.25
location 6 - $3.50

Now the average of all six locations is $4.00. So you can see that each location carries less weight. The same thing happens with BCS computer rankings. As you accumulate more games, each game carries less and less weight.

Therefore, I don't believe that BYU beating Utah will boost BYU enough in the computer polls to surpass Boise St. However, I think it would put BYU one rank below them.

But wait there are two other components to the BCS standings - the human voters in the coaches poll and the harris poll. This is where I think BYU will surpass Boise State. An impressive victory over a no. 7 Utah team will give BYU a stronger resume than Boise State, even if they do end up undefeated.

So my thoughts are, yes, BYU does still have a shot at the BCS. They are going to have to beat a decent Utah team, but I think they can do it.

MWC Mix Up

I have been avoiding my blog for the past week, but realize now that I have to start writing again. After BYU deflating loss to TCU last week, I think everybody is Provo is down.

Although, getting BYU to a BCS bowl would take a small miracle, the MWC champion is still far from decided. Still in the running are Utah, TCU, Air Force, and BYU. Unfortunately for Air Force and BYU, they aren't completely in charge of their own destiny. Even if either BYU or Air Force win the remainder of its games, they could still end up in second place. BYU needs to beat Utah and have TCU lose. Air Force needs to beat TCU and have Utah lose. So you can see there is still quite a bit of football left to play that will decide the MWC champion.

So, here the question that everyone wants answered. Could BYU still go to a BCS bowl? The answer is yes. The odds are that they won't, but here's how things would have to work out for them to go. BYU first and foremost has to win the MWC. If they don't, there's no chance. If they win the MWC, that would mean they would have beat Utah in the last regular season game, which would put them ahead of Utah in the polls. If the win the MWC, that would mean that TCU lost and would also be behind BYU in the polls. Essentially, BYU should be the top MWC team in the polls. The only other non-BCS team would be Boise St. If Boise St. goes undefeated, they will probably end up higher in the polls than a one-loss MWC team, but with how weak the WAC is this year, people have said they could fall below a one-loss MWC team. If BYU could somehow leap frog Boise St. there is hope. The next question becomes, how high would BYU have to be ranked? This year is looking good for that question. Normally a non-BCS conference champ would have to be ranked 12 or above to earn the automatic berth. However, if they are ranked 16 or above and ranked higher than a champion of a BCS conference they get an automatic berth. This year the ACC and the Big East are struggling. It could easily end up that the champion of either of those conferences ends up below 16 in the final BCS standings.

That was a mouthful, but that's what would have to happen for BYU to get to a BCS bowl this year. I know it sounds impossible, but we can dream.