BYU at Utah - Pre-game thoughts

First thought: Utah is beatable. Many of the news media and sports analysts think this game is no question. They say BYU doesn't have a chance. I disagree.

With that being said, I will not go as far as to say that BYU will dominate Utah. To say that would mean that I haven't been watching football at all this year. I do believe that Utah is a good team. They have beaten some quality teams this year.

However, in my opinion, Utah's offense is its greatest flaw this year. This is evidenced by the fact that their kicker is idolized by everyone at the University. A truly good offense does not rely on a kicker, but rather sees their kicker as last resort in case they are not able to get into to the end zone.

In five of Utah's games this year (Michigan, Air Force, Oregon St, New Mexico, and TCU), their win has come in the last few minutes of the game. Some credit Brian Johnson for leading such brilliant come backs. However, I believe that, in some instances, it was the poor play of Johnson earlier in the game that required him to put together a come back. I'm not saying that Johnson is not a good quarterback, but he is definitely not a good quarterback all the time. That inconsistency makes the Utes beatable. When the oposing defense has shut down Johnson, the Ute defense has had to win the game for them.

The Utah defense is getting a lot of well deserved praise for its quickness. However, they have yet to face a passing attack like what BYU has in place. The only way to get to BYU's passing offense is to get to Max Hall. I don't see this happening. Utah has one of the smallest defensive lines in the conference. BYU has the biggest offensive line. I believe that Utah's quickness won't make up for the lack of size against the BYU front five. Utah's quickness might help them to get one sack, but otherwise Max will have the time he needs to find Pitta, Collie, Reed, George, or Unga.

BYU's defense continues to get criticism. Nobody seems to remember that this is the defense that allowed only 10.17 ppg in its first 6 contests, including two shutouts. I will be the first to admit that BYU's defense hasn't been playing as well lately, but I saw a change during the second half of the Air Force game. BYU looked more like the defense they played at the first of the year. Although BYU's UCLA shutout has proven to not be as presigous as it seemed, BYU will come into this weekend's game with the same type of intensity.

Keys to the Game
BYU's defense needs to stop the direct snap plays. TCU showed the conference that directly snapping the ball to the tailback, works against BYU. Since that game, everyone has done it. Utah will be not different. They will snap it to Asiata or Mack 10 or so times.

Score in the red zone. Utah's defense has been stingy this year. BYU needs to capitalize on every opportunity they get to score. Utah's offense has proven that it can't score on a consistent basis. So if BYU can constantly score, BYU should win the game.

Predicted Score
BYU 27, Utah 23

Road to the BCS

So, here come all the questions. What are the implications of this weekend's rivalry game between BYU and Utah? Obviously, for Utah, it means a MWC title and a BCS berth. The real question is this. If BYU wins, will it be enough to boost them above Boise St and give them a BCS berth. Your guess is as good as mine, but here is what I think.

Earlier in the year, no. 24 TCU beat no. 9 BYU. TCU essentially plays the same schedule as BYU with the exception of Oklahoma, who beat TCU. After beating BYU, TCU jumped nine spots to 15 in the USA Today's coaches poll. Now before you start doing the math (i.e. no. 14 BYU beats no. 7 Utah = jumping more than nine spots) remember that was mid-season. This game will be played at the end of the season. You may wonder what's the difference. Some even think that a win at the end of the season carries more weight.

It is true that a loss later in the season is harder to make up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that games later in the year carry more weight. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that they actually carry less. The BCS computer rankings use averages, therefore each game carries less and less weight as every other game is played. Let me give you an example.

Suppose you were to take the price of a hamburger in three different locations and find the average price. Let's say the prices are as follows:

location 1 - $3.50
location 2 - $3.25
location 3 - $7.50

The average of these burgers is $4.75, which means that obviously the burger in location 3 carries a lot of weight. Now let's add three more locations.

location 4 - $3.00
location 5 - $3.25
location 6 - $3.50

Now the average of all six locations is $4.00. So you can see that each location carries less weight. The same thing happens with BCS computer rankings. As you accumulate more games, each game carries less and less weight.

Therefore, I don't believe that BYU beating Utah will boost BYU enough in the computer polls to surpass Boise St. However, I think it would put BYU one rank below them.

But wait there are two other components to the BCS standings - the human voters in the coaches poll and the harris poll. This is where I think BYU will surpass Boise State. An impressive victory over a no. 7 Utah team will give BYU a stronger resume than Boise State, even if they do end up undefeated.

So my thoughts are, yes, BYU does still have a shot at the BCS. They are going to have to beat a decent Utah team, but I think they can do it.

Pre-Game Thoughts - San Diego State

I have put off writing this week's pre-game thoughts because, well it's San Diego State. I know that you are supposed to have respect for every opponent, but let's be honest. Does San Diego State have what it takes to really even make it a game.

Saturday the Cougars play their last home game of the season. They are 5-0 at home this season and it looks like they will be 6-0 at home by the end of Saturday afternoon. San Diego State has had a rough season, to say the least. Their low point was a 7-70 loss to the New Mexico Lobos. The closest they got in conference play was a heart breaking loss against Colorado State. Their final three games will probably prove to be their hardest ones of the season, at BYU, Utah, and UNLV. Their best chance is to beat a banged up UNLV team that doesn't have their star quarterback.

With TCU falling to Utah last night, a win for BYU would definitely put them about TCU in the BCS standings. It also means that BYU still has a shot at winning a share of the MWC if they beat Utah on November 22. Which brings me to an interesting question. If BYU, Utah, and TCU all end the season with one conference loss and essentially all tie for the MWC title, would any go to a BCS bowl?

Many analysts say that none would go to a BCS bowl because there would be no way to decide which to take. I, however, have a different oppinion. TCU will fall this week because of their loss to Utah. They won't fall far because it was a close game and Utah was ranked ahead of them, but TCU only has one game left this season. Their fall will probably push them at least to the lower teens and one win against Air Force won't be enough to get them back into the top 12, especially since they have two bye weeks when other teams will be playing.

Utah will move up in the polls this week, but probably not much. The top 8 are pretty solid, but one will definitely lose because Texas Tech and Oklahoma St play each other. Utah might jump one spot. I think when BYU plays in Salt Lake City, Utah will be 6th or 7th.

A win this week for BYU and a win against Air Force, will get BYU into the upper teens by November 22nd, probably 11 or 12. By this same time, if BSU keeps winning, they will probably stay around 9 or 10. I don't think voters will give them much more than that since the WAC is weak this year. With that being said, if BYU beats Utah, they could theoretically jump BSU in the BCS standings and end up as the top non-BCS qualifier. The selection committee would have no choice but to put BYU in a BCS bowl, because they would have earned the automatic berth being the highest ranked non-BCS conference champion.

Well that was a mouthful of a pre-game thought article, but it is a lot more interesting than talking about how much BYU is going to whoop SDSU by.

Predicted Score
BYU 42, SDSU 7