BYU Football - TCU - Pregame

Everyone in the country will turn their eyes to Provo this weekend, as ESPN's college gameday showcases this weekend's only football game between ranked teams. 

The no 8 TCU Horned Frogs come to visit the no. 16 BYU Cougars.  The BYU football team is hoping to make up for their embarassing loss to TCU a year ago.  In that game, the tables were turned.  BYU was a top ten team believed to be headed for a BCS bowl and TCU spoiled their hopes.  The cougars hope to return the favor this year in Provo.

Earlier this season many believed that the BYU football game against Oklahoma would be the biggest one of the season.  After Oklahoma's turn of bad events that game isn't carrying as much weight any more.  BYU needs this win in order to gain back some of the national recognition that has been lost after the Oklahoma mediocrity and the Florida State loss. 

While many believe that BYU can't get into a BCS bowl game this year, there are people that believe that a dominant win againt TCU and a dominant win againt Utah could do the trick.  It would probably also require a Boise State loss. 

The game this saturday will be an interesting one.  TCU has one of the best defenses in the nation and BYU has one of the best offenses in the country.  Without a question, the game will hinge on BYU's defense.  If they can shut down the TCU offense, BYU can win the game.  If not, BYU can start playing re-run tapes of last year's game. 

Last week against San Diego State, I think BYU saw one of the best offenses in the MWC.  QB Ryan Lindley is an accurate passer and he has receivers that can catch the ball.  TCU doesn't seem to have quite the offensive attack that SDSU had.  They run a lot more than they pass.  And BYU's run defense has been pretty solid this year.  The gaps have been in the pass defense.  Look for TCU to try to take advantage of BYU's small corners. 

In the end, I think BYU has what it takes to win this game.  I believe that if BYU can play solid defense and score early they will win the football game.

Prediction
BYU 34, TCU 28

College Gameday Coming to Provo

ESPN's College GameDay is coming to Provo for the BYU, TCU football game this saturday.  The game is set to kick off at 5:30pm.  However, the college gameday show will begin at noon.  The game will not be televised on ESPN or ABC, but the day's college football action will be brought to you from Provo.

Over the weekend the first BCS standings came out.  BYU fell into place at 16.  TCU is the leader of the conference at number 8.  The no. 8 vs. no. 16 match-up is definitely the reason ESPN is coming to Provo this weekend.

This morning KSL interviewed Bronco Mendenhall and asked him how he felt about ESPN coming to LaVell Edwards Stadium for the game.  He said that he was proud of his team.  He feels they are a good football team and have deserved that kind of recognition.  When asked how he would keep his team focused on the game and not the attention that will be brought to Provo on Saturday, he said that the preparation will be similar to how the team prepared for the Oklahoma game.

BYU's BCS Hopes

This weekend, my worst fear may have been realized when the new AP and Coaches polls were released. That is BYU most likely has no chance of going to a BCS bowl this year, even if they win the rest of their games.

This weekend, after what I felt was a solid win against a Colorado State football team that had been receiving votes in the polls, BYU football fell one spot in both the Coaches and the AP polls to 21 and 20 respectively. I was, quite honestly, surprised. I felt that the win showed that BYU was back on the right track and is still a powerful football team. In addition, four top twenty-five teams that were ranked ahead of BYU lost. However, of those teams only one of them fell below BYU in one poll (Mississippi). All of their losses were blowouts and the teams looked much worse than BYU did against FSU.

Here's the punchline. Big name programs hold on to their rankings better than BYU and voters won't put BYU back in a position that would allow them to play in a BCS game. Even if Boise State and Houston lose games and BYU beats TCU, the odds are that BYU won't ascend into the top 12 and therefore will not be allowed to play in a BCS bowl this year. Las Vegas Bowl, here we come ... for the fifth year in a row.

BYU 2009 Official Schedule

BYU recently announced their complete schedule for the 2009 football season. It includes some exciting match ups including, Oklahoma, Florida St, Utah, and TCU for homecoming. Below is the complete schedule.

Sept 5 - Oklahoma (Dallas, TX)
Sept 12 - Tulane
Sept 19 - Florida State
Sept 26 - Colorado State
Oct 2 - Utah State
Oct 10 - UNLV
Oct 17 - San Diego St.
Oct 24 - TCU (Homecoming)
Nov 7 - Wyoming
Nov 14 - New Mexico
Nov 21 - Air Force
Nov 28 - Utah

Home games listed in bold.

BYU 2009 Schedule

BYU has finalized their non-conference schedule for 2009. There are some revisions to the original opponents, but if you're a BYU fan, you can't complain about who the cougars will play. 2009 already looks to be a good year posting the best home schedule BYU has played in years. Home opponents will include, Florida State, Utah State, Air Force, Colorado State, TCU, and Utah.

In addition to an excellent home schedule, BYU will also face Oklahoma in what proves to be a quality season opening game. The game will be played on September 5, 2009 at the new Dallas Cowboys stadium in Arlington, Texas. The BYU-Oklahoma match-up will be the first game played in the new stadium which will be the new home of the Cotton Bowl. The Labor Day weekend contest will kick off in primetime and be televised on ABC or ESPN as part of the second annual ESPN Kickoff Week presented by Gillette.

For complete details, click here.

The rest of the non-conference schedule is as follows.

September 5 - Oklahoma - Arlington, TX
September 12 - Tulane - New Orleans, LA
September 19 - Florida State - Provo, UT
October 2 - Utah State - Provo, UT

Road to the BCS

So, here come all the questions. What are the implications of this weekend's rivalry game between BYU and Utah? Obviously, for Utah, it means a MWC title and a BCS berth. The real question is this. If BYU wins, will it be enough to boost them above Boise St and give them a BCS berth. Your guess is as good as mine, but here is what I think.

Earlier in the year, no. 24 TCU beat no. 9 BYU. TCU essentially plays the same schedule as BYU with the exception of Oklahoma, who beat TCU. After beating BYU, TCU jumped nine spots to 15 in the USA Today's coaches poll. Now before you start doing the math (i.e. no. 14 BYU beats no. 7 Utah = jumping more than nine spots) remember that was mid-season. This game will be played at the end of the season. You may wonder what's the difference. Some even think that a win at the end of the season carries more weight.

It is true that a loss later in the season is harder to make up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that games later in the year carry more weight. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that they actually carry less. The BCS computer rankings use averages, therefore each game carries less and less weight as every other game is played. Let me give you an example.

Suppose you were to take the price of a hamburger in three different locations and find the average price. Let's say the prices are as follows:

location 1 - $3.50
location 2 - $3.25
location 3 - $7.50

The average of these burgers is $4.75, which means that obviously the burger in location 3 carries a lot of weight. Now let's add three more locations.

location 4 - $3.00
location 5 - $3.25
location 6 - $3.50

Now the average of all six locations is $4.00. So you can see that each location carries less weight. The same thing happens with BCS computer rankings. As you accumulate more games, each game carries less and less weight.

Therefore, I don't believe that BYU beating Utah will boost BYU enough in the computer polls to surpass Boise St. However, I think it would put BYU one rank below them.

But wait there are two other components to the BCS standings - the human voters in the coaches poll and the harris poll. This is where I think BYU will surpass Boise State. An impressive victory over a no. 7 Utah team will give BYU a stronger resume than Boise State, even if they do end up undefeated.

So my thoughts are, yes, BYU does still have a shot at the BCS. They are going to have to beat a decent Utah team, but I think they can do it.

Pre-Game Thoughts - San Diego State

I have put off writing this week's pre-game thoughts because, well it's San Diego State. I know that you are supposed to have respect for every opponent, but let's be honest. Does San Diego State have what it takes to really even make it a game.

Saturday the Cougars play their last home game of the season. They are 5-0 at home this season and it looks like they will be 6-0 at home by the end of Saturday afternoon. San Diego State has had a rough season, to say the least. Their low point was a 7-70 loss to the New Mexico Lobos. The closest they got in conference play was a heart breaking loss against Colorado State. Their final three games will probably prove to be their hardest ones of the season, at BYU, Utah, and UNLV. Their best chance is to beat a banged up UNLV team that doesn't have their star quarterback.

With TCU falling to Utah last night, a win for BYU would definitely put them about TCU in the BCS standings. It also means that BYU still has a shot at winning a share of the MWC if they beat Utah on November 22. Which brings me to an interesting question. If BYU, Utah, and TCU all end the season with one conference loss and essentially all tie for the MWC title, would any go to a BCS bowl?

Many analysts say that none would go to a BCS bowl because there would be no way to decide which to take. I, however, have a different oppinion. TCU will fall this week because of their loss to Utah. They won't fall far because it was a close game and Utah was ranked ahead of them, but TCU only has one game left this season. Their fall will probably push them at least to the lower teens and one win against Air Force won't be enough to get them back into the top 12, especially since they have two bye weeks when other teams will be playing.

Utah will move up in the polls this week, but probably not much. The top 8 are pretty solid, but one will definitely lose because Texas Tech and Oklahoma St play each other. Utah might jump one spot. I think when BYU plays in Salt Lake City, Utah will be 6th or 7th.

A win this week for BYU and a win against Air Force, will get BYU into the upper teens by November 22nd, probably 11 or 12. By this same time, if BSU keeps winning, they will probably stay around 9 or 10. I don't think voters will give them much more than that since the WAC is weak this year. With that being said, if BYU beats Utah, they could theoretically jump BSU in the BCS standings and end up as the top non-BCS qualifier. The selection committee would have no choice but to put BYU in a BCS bowl, because they would have earned the automatic berth being the highest ranked non-BCS conference champion.

Well that was a mouthful of a pre-game thought article, but it is a lot more interesting than talking about how much BYU is going to whoop SDSU by.

Predicted Score
BYU 42, SDSU 7

Pre-Game Thoughts - Colorado State

Other than a home match up against San Diego St. in a couple of weeks, BYU's final stretch doesn't look too easy. Colorado St. has definitely benefited from new head coach Steve Fairchild. A program that won only two games last year is now flirting with bowl eligibility sitting at 4-4. With Wyoming, on their schedule they really only have to worry about winning one other game. But it won't be easy as they still have to play BYU, Air Force, and New Mexico. All three teams are leaders in the MWC this year.

Knowing they don't have an easy road to bowl eligiblity, Colorado St. will be well prepared for BYU this saturday. The might also be very angry after coming off a close win that should have been a blow out against San Diego St. In a game where Colorado St. racked up 507 total yards compared the SDSU's 392, you would have thought the game would have been decided by a lot more than 4 points.

BYU should be finding some anger as well after narrowly winning a shootout with UNLV last saturday. Many of the national media felt the win should have been much more lop sided, and therefore BYU stayed static is the polls while multiple other teams leapfrogged the cougars. However, the fact of the matter is UNLV is playing much better than their record shows. Their team is taking every game down to the wire and simply not finding a way to close the deal. How easily critics forget that this is the same UNLV team that beat a 13th ranked Arizona St team and a very good Iowa St team. They are a very good football team.

This week BYU will look to quiet the national media (or get them saying the right things, which ever you prefer) by beating a much improved Colorado St team. However, they are going to have to do it soundly to get any national attention. This week all eyes are on Utah and TCU as they prepare for a thursday night showdown next week in Salt Lake City.

This game, just like last week, has the potential to be a shoot out. Colorado St has the ability to put points on the board. They will score and the cougars need to be ready to also put points on the board. Although the potential is there, I don't believe this game will be as close as last week's. BYU has a defensive front that matches up well with the running game of Colorado St.

Predicted Score
BYU 42, Colorado St. 20

Pre-Game Thoughts - UNLV

As a BYU fan, you typically wouldn't think of a UNLV team as a challenge. However, this weeks match up brings with it the same set of challenges as the last two games. UNLV delivers a powerful run game, with the back pocket option to pass.

As the year has progressed, UNLV has seen its good games and bad games. While their record doesn't show a lot of consistency, there is no mistaking that Omar Clayton is getting better with each game he plays. Last week against New Mexico, he completed 19 of 30 passes for 251 yards, averages for a BYU quarterback, but pretty good numbers for the rest of the conference. His offensive counterpart big Frank Summers is a monster in and of himself. Clayton is really just a back up if Summers can't get the job done. Averaging almost 5 yards per carry, Summers is a force to be reckoned with.

The rebels are coming off a tough one point loss to Air Force. They are greedy for revenge. And with BYU losing last week they will be looking for blood this saturday.

The cougars haven't lost back to back conference games since 2005, but be careful because in 2005 the first of those two losses was to TCU.

Last week's defeat was difficult for BYU. Although they played tough, mistakes seemed to plague both the offense and defense. Multiple turnovers and missed opportunities kept the cougars to only 7 points on the board, while those same turnovers turned into points for TCU. I have no doubt that this weeks practice regime was not easy for the cougars. Bronco has said that the team simply wasn't prepared for TCU. I'm sure that won't be the case this week.

Keys to the Game
Run Defense
I keep saying this, but it keeps killing us. BYU has got to stop the run. Allowing teams like TCU and New Mexico to run, opened up pass opportunities that shouldn't have been available to them.

Get back to BYU
BYU has traditionally been a passing team. Harvey Unga has added a ground element to their attack this year. BYU can't leave it all on the shoulders of Harvey. He really is a secondary weapon to the BYU passing attack. BYU needs to come out and play like the BYU that clobbered UCLA.

ESPN Showcasing BYU

Checkout the front page of ESPN.com. The lead article showcase's BYU as the top non-BCS school in the country and one of ESPN's top picks for the 2008 season.

This picture was actually from earlier today. The picture has moved to the bottom of the page, but it can still be seen along with other pictures of Max Hall. Apparently BYU's match-up tonight against TCU is one deserving of national attention. Obviously it is, this game and the November 22 clash against Utah will decide the fate of BYU in the BCS. It's nice to see BYU getting some of the attention it deserves.

Below are the links to ESPN's current articles about BYU.
Hall poised to become one of BYU's best QBs
Breaking the huddle at the season's halfway point

BYU at TCU, Pregame Thoughts

Thursday's match-up between BYU and TCU will is shaping up to be the most important game BYU will play until November 22, when the Cougars face their in-state rival the Utes. TCU has once again proved it deserves national recognition by jumping back into the Coaches poll. They currently sit at number 24, which makes this game that much better for BYU's BCS hopes.

Last week, the Cougars faced a powerful rushing offense in the New Mexico Lobos. It gave the BYU defense some difficulties, but their "bend, but don't break" philosophy seemed to work well for them. Although they gave up 285 total yards, they only gave up 3 points on the score board.

TCU has a similar run game, but struggled against a rebuilding Colorado St. team last week. Their high powered run offense was limited to only 13 points on two scores, all of which came in the first half.

This game will be BYU's first real test against a team that deserves all the hype they are given before the game. UCLA was supposed to be a tough team that would give the Cougars trouble. 59-0 made UCLA look like a Jr. College team. Since then the Bruins haven't done much and will be lucky to end the season as a mediocre Pac-10 team. TCU is different. They have already proved that they deserve the attention they are getting. Their only lose was to then no. 1 Oklahoma, who very much deserved to be no. 1 at the time. (The evidence is that they only dropped a few spots after their loss to Texas.)

Even though there are those out there that favor TCU, I believe BYU can and will pull it off on Thursday.

Keys to the Game (Similar to New Mexico)
Run Defense
TCU is good on the ground, maybe better than New Mexico. The "bend, but don't break" philosophy won't work against TCU. If BYU allows TCU to have ground yardage, they will score. If they can't run, TCU has a hard time passing.

Quick Start
We saw how BYU struggled agains't New Mexico, when they didn't score first. It is imperative they score first. I would say, if BYU wins the coin toss they should want to recieve.

Two-dimensional Offense
BYU needs to establish a run game and a pass game. TCU's defense is too good. If they stop one of BYU's offensive attacks, BYU won't stand a chance with the other. They have to keep the defense honest.

Predicted Score
BYU 31, TCU 27