BYU Football - TCU - Pregame

Everyone in the country will turn their eyes to Provo this weekend, as ESPN's college gameday showcases this weekend's only football game between ranked teams. 

The no 8 TCU Horned Frogs come to visit the no. 16 BYU Cougars.  The BYU football team is hoping to make up for their embarassing loss to TCU a year ago.  In that game, the tables were turned.  BYU was a top ten team believed to be headed for a BCS bowl and TCU spoiled their hopes.  The cougars hope to return the favor this year in Provo.

Earlier this season many believed that the BYU football game against Oklahoma would be the biggest one of the season.  After Oklahoma's turn of bad events that game isn't carrying as much weight any more.  BYU needs this win in order to gain back some of the national recognition that has been lost after the Oklahoma mediocrity and the Florida State loss. 

While many believe that BYU can't get into a BCS bowl game this year, there are people that believe that a dominant win againt TCU and a dominant win againt Utah could do the trick.  It would probably also require a Boise State loss. 

The game this saturday will be an interesting one.  TCU has one of the best defenses in the nation and BYU has one of the best offenses in the country.  Without a question, the game will hinge on BYU's defense.  If they can shut down the TCU offense, BYU can win the game.  If not, BYU can start playing re-run tapes of last year's game. 

Last week against San Diego State, I think BYU saw one of the best offenses in the MWC.  QB Ryan Lindley is an accurate passer and he has receivers that can catch the ball.  TCU doesn't seem to have quite the offensive attack that SDSU had.  They run a lot more than they pass.  And BYU's run defense has been pretty solid this year.  The gaps have been in the pass defense.  Look for TCU to try to take advantage of BYU's small corners. 

In the end, I think BYU has what it takes to win this game.  I believe that if BYU can play solid defense and score early they will win the football game.

Prediction
BYU 34, TCU 28

BYU 2009 Official Schedule

BYU recently announced their complete schedule for the 2009 football season. It includes some exciting match ups including, Oklahoma, Florida St, Utah, and TCU for homecoming. Below is the complete schedule.

Sept 5 - Oklahoma (Dallas, TX)
Sept 12 - Tulane
Sept 19 - Florida State
Sept 26 - Colorado State
Oct 2 - Utah State
Oct 10 - UNLV
Oct 17 - San Diego St.
Oct 24 - TCU (Homecoming)
Nov 7 - Wyoming
Nov 14 - New Mexico
Nov 21 - Air Force
Nov 28 - Utah

Home games listed in bold.

BYU 2009 Schedule

BYU has finalized their non-conference schedule for 2009. There are some revisions to the original opponents, but if you're a BYU fan, you can't complain about who the cougars will play. 2009 already looks to be a good year posting the best home schedule BYU has played in years. Home opponents will include, Florida State, Utah State, Air Force, Colorado State, TCU, and Utah.

In addition to an excellent home schedule, BYU will also face Oklahoma in what proves to be a quality season opening game. The game will be played on September 5, 2009 at the new Dallas Cowboys stadium in Arlington, Texas. The BYU-Oklahoma match-up will be the first game played in the new stadium which will be the new home of the Cotton Bowl. The Labor Day weekend contest will kick off in primetime and be televised on ABC or ESPN as part of the second annual ESPN Kickoff Week presented by Gillette.

For complete details, click here.

The rest of the non-conference schedule is as follows.

September 5 - Oklahoma - Arlington, TX
September 12 - Tulane - New Orleans, LA
September 19 - Florida State - Provo, UT
October 2 - Utah State - Provo, UT

BYU at Utah - Pre-game thoughts

First thought: Utah is beatable. Many of the news media and sports analysts think this game is no question. They say BYU doesn't have a chance. I disagree.

With that being said, I will not go as far as to say that BYU will dominate Utah. To say that would mean that I haven't been watching football at all this year. I do believe that Utah is a good team. They have beaten some quality teams this year.

However, in my opinion, Utah's offense is its greatest flaw this year. This is evidenced by the fact that their kicker is idolized by everyone at the University. A truly good offense does not rely on a kicker, but rather sees their kicker as last resort in case they are not able to get into to the end zone.

In five of Utah's games this year (Michigan, Air Force, Oregon St, New Mexico, and TCU), their win has come in the last few minutes of the game. Some credit Brian Johnson for leading such brilliant come backs. However, I believe that, in some instances, it was the poor play of Johnson earlier in the game that required him to put together a come back. I'm not saying that Johnson is not a good quarterback, but he is definitely not a good quarterback all the time. That inconsistency makes the Utes beatable. When the oposing defense has shut down Johnson, the Ute defense has had to win the game for them.

The Utah defense is getting a lot of well deserved praise for its quickness. However, they have yet to face a passing attack like what BYU has in place. The only way to get to BYU's passing offense is to get to Max Hall. I don't see this happening. Utah has one of the smallest defensive lines in the conference. BYU has the biggest offensive line. I believe that Utah's quickness won't make up for the lack of size against the BYU front five. Utah's quickness might help them to get one sack, but otherwise Max will have the time he needs to find Pitta, Collie, Reed, George, or Unga.

BYU's defense continues to get criticism. Nobody seems to remember that this is the defense that allowed only 10.17 ppg in its first 6 contests, including two shutouts. I will be the first to admit that BYU's defense hasn't been playing as well lately, but I saw a change during the second half of the Air Force game. BYU looked more like the defense they played at the first of the year. Although BYU's UCLA shutout has proven to not be as presigous as it seemed, BYU will come into this weekend's game with the same type of intensity.

Keys to the Game
BYU's defense needs to stop the direct snap plays. TCU showed the conference that directly snapping the ball to the tailback, works against BYU. Since that game, everyone has done it. Utah will be not different. They will snap it to Asiata or Mack 10 or so times.

Score in the red zone. Utah's defense has been stingy this year. BYU needs to capitalize on every opportunity they get to score. Utah's offense has proven that it can't score on a consistent basis. So if BYU can constantly score, BYU should win the game.

Predicted Score
BYU 27, Utah 23

Road to the BCS

So, here come all the questions. What are the implications of this weekend's rivalry game between BYU and Utah? Obviously, for Utah, it means a MWC title and a BCS berth. The real question is this. If BYU wins, will it be enough to boost them above Boise St and give them a BCS berth. Your guess is as good as mine, but here is what I think.

Earlier in the year, no. 24 TCU beat no. 9 BYU. TCU essentially plays the same schedule as BYU with the exception of Oklahoma, who beat TCU. After beating BYU, TCU jumped nine spots to 15 in the USA Today's coaches poll. Now before you start doing the math (i.e. no. 14 BYU beats no. 7 Utah = jumping more than nine spots) remember that was mid-season. This game will be played at the end of the season. You may wonder what's the difference. Some even think that a win at the end of the season carries more weight.

It is true that a loss later in the season is harder to make up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that games later in the year carry more weight. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that they actually carry less. The BCS computer rankings use averages, therefore each game carries less and less weight as every other game is played. Let me give you an example.

Suppose you were to take the price of a hamburger in three different locations and find the average price. Let's say the prices are as follows:

location 1 - $3.50
location 2 - $3.25
location 3 - $7.50

The average of these burgers is $4.75, which means that obviously the burger in location 3 carries a lot of weight. Now let's add three more locations.

location 4 - $3.00
location 5 - $3.25
location 6 - $3.50

Now the average of all six locations is $4.00. So you can see that each location carries less weight. The same thing happens with BCS computer rankings. As you accumulate more games, each game carries less and less weight.

Therefore, I don't believe that BYU beating Utah will boost BYU enough in the computer polls to surpass Boise St. However, I think it would put BYU one rank below them.

But wait there are two other components to the BCS standings - the human voters in the coaches poll and the harris poll. This is where I think BYU will surpass Boise State. An impressive victory over a no. 7 Utah team will give BYU a stronger resume than Boise State, even if they do end up undefeated.

So my thoughts are, yes, BYU does still have a shot at the BCS. They are going to have to beat a decent Utah team, but I think they can do it.

Pre-Game Thoughts - San Diego State

I have put off writing this week's pre-game thoughts because, well it's San Diego State. I know that you are supposed to have respect for every opponent, but let's be honest. Does San Diego State have what it takes to really even make it a game.

Saturday the Cougars play their last home game of the season. They are 5-0 at home this season and it looks like they will be 6-0 at home by the end of Saturday afternoon. San Diego State has had a rough season, to say the least. Their low point was a 7-70 loss to the New Mexico Lobos. The closest they got in conference play was a heart breaking loss against Colorado State. Their final three games will probably prove to be their hardest ones of the season, at BYU, Utah, and UNLV. Their best chance is to beat a banged up UNLV team that doesn't have their star quarterback.

With TCU falling to Utah last night, a win for BYU would definitely put them about TCU in the BCS standings. It also means that BYU still has a shot at winning a share of the MWC if they beat Utah on November 22. Which brings me to an interesting question. If BYU, Utah, and TCU all end the season with one conference loss and essentially all tie for the MWC title, would any go to a BCS bowl?

Many analysts say that none would go to a BCS bowl because there would be no way to decide which to take. I, however, have a different oppinion. TCU will fall this week because of their loss to Utah. They won't fall far because it was a close game and Utah was ranked ahead of them, but TCU only has one game left this season. Their fall will probably push them at least to the lower teens and one win against Air Force won't be enough to get them back into the top 12, especially since they have two bye weeks when other teams will be playing.

Utah will move up in the polls this week, but probably not much. The top 8 are pretty solid, but one will definitely lose because Texas Tech and Oklahoma St play each other. Utah might jump one spot. I think when BYU plays in Salt Lake City, Utah will be 6th or 7th.

A win this week for BYU and a win against Air Force, will get BYU into the upper teens by November 22nd, probably 11 or 12. By this same time, if BSU keeps winning, they will probably stay around 9 or 10. I don't think voters will give them much more than that since the WAC is weak this year. With that being said, if BYU beats Utah, they could theoretically jump BSU in the BCS standings and end up as the top non-BCS qualifier. The selection committee would have no choice but to put BYU in a BCS bowl, because they would have earned the automatic berth being the highest ranked non-BCS conference champion.

Well that was a mouthful of a pre-game thought article, but it is a lot more interesting than talking about how much BYU is going to whoop SDSU by.

Predicted Score
BYU 42, SDSU 7

Pre-Game Thoughts - Colorado State

Other than a home match up against San Diego St. in a couple of weeks, BYU's final stretch doesn't look too easy. Colorado St. has definitely benefited from new head coach Steve Fairchild. A program that won only two games last year is now flirting with bowl eligibility sitting at 4-4. With Wyoming, on their schedule they really only have to worry about winning one other game. But it won't be easy as they still have to play BYU, Air Force, and New Mexico. All three teams are leaders in the MWC this year.

Knowing they don't have an easy road to bowl eligiblity, Colorado St. will be well prepared for BYU this saturday. The might also be very angry after coming off a close win that should have been a blow out against San Diego St. In a game where Colorado St. racked up 507 total yards compared the SDSU's 392, you would have thought the game would have been decided by a lot more than 4 points.

BYU should be finding some anger as well after narrowly winning a shootout with UNLV last saturday. Many of the national media felt the win should have been much more lop sided, and therefore BYU stayed static is the polls while multiple other teams leapfrogged the cougars. However, the fact of the matter is UNLV is playing much better than their record shows. Their team is taking every game down to the wire and simply not finding a way to close the deal. How easily critics forget that this is the same UNLV team that beat a 13th ranked Arizona St team and a very good Iowa St team. They are a very good football team.

This week BYU will look to quiet the national media (or get them saying the right things, which ever you prefer) by beating a much improved Colorado St team. However, they are going to have to do it soundly to get any national attention. This week all eyes are on Utah and TCU as they prepare for a thursday night showdown next week in Salt Lake City.

This game, just like last week, has the potential to be a shoot out. Colorado St has the ability to put points on the board. They will score and the cougars need to be ready to also put points on the board. Although the potential is there, I don't believe this game will be as close as last week's. BYU has a defensive front that matches up well with the running game of Colorado St.

Predicted Score
BYU 42, Colorado St. 20

MWC Mix Up

I have been avoiding my blog for the past week, but realize now that I have to start writing again. After BYU deflating loss to TCU last week, I think everybody is Provo is down.

Although, getting BYU to a BCS bowl would take a small miracle, the MWC champion is still far from decided. Still in the running are Utah, TCU, Air Force, and BYU. Unfortunately for Air Force and BYU, they aren't completely in charge of their own destiny. Even if either BYU or Air Force win the remainder of its games, they could still end up in second place. BYU needs to beat Utah and have TCU lose. Air Force needs to beat TCU and have Utah lose. So you can see there is still quite a bit of football left to play that will decide the MWC champion.

So, here the question that everyone wants answered. Could BYU still go to a BCS bowl? The answer is yes. The odds are that they won't, but here's how things would have to work out for them to go. BYU first and foremost has to win the MWC. If they don't, there's no chance. If they win the MWC, that would mean they would have beat Utah in the last regular season game, which would put them ahead of Utah in the polls. If the win the MWC, that would mean that TCU lost and would also be behind BYU in the polls. Essentially, BYU should be the top MWC team in the polls. The only other non-BCS team would be Boise St. If Boise St. goes undefeated, they will probably end up higher in the polls than a one-loss MWC team, but with how weak the WAC is this year, people have said they could fall below a one-loss MWC team. If BYU could somehow leap frog Boise St. there is hope. The next question becomes, how high would BYU have to be ranked? This year is looking good for that question. Normally a non-BCS conference champ would have to be ranked 12 or above to earn the automatic berth. However, if they are ranked 16 or above and ranked higher than a champion of a BCS conference they get an automatic berth. This year the ACC and the Big East are struggling. It could easily end up that the champion of either of those conferences ends up below 16 in the final BCS standings.

That was a mouthful, but that's what would have to happen for BYU to get to a BCS bowl this year. I know it sounds impossible, but we can dream.

Week 1 Rankings

The week 1 rankings are out. With their 41-17 win over Northern Iowa, BYU moved up 2 spots in the USA Today poll to number 15. They also moved up in the AP Top 25 to number 15.

Also of note, Utah's win over Michigan earned them a number 23 ranking in the USA Today poll.

You can find the complete rankings here.