College Gameday Coming to Provo

ESPN's College GameDay is coming to Provo for the BYU, TCU football game this saturday.  The game is set to kick off at 5:30pm.  However, the college gameday show will begin at noon.  The game will not be televised on ESPN or ABC, but the day's college football action will be brought to you from Provo.

Over the weekend the first BCS standings came out.  BYU fell into place at 16.  TCU is the leader of the conference at number 8.  The no. 8 vs. no. 16 match-up is definitely the reason ESPN is coming to Provo this weekend.

This morning KSL interviewed Bronco Mendenhall and asked him how he felt about ESPN coming to LaVell Edwards Stadium for the game.  He said that he was proud of his team.  He feels they are a good football team and have deserved that kind of recognition.  When asked how he would keep his team focused on the game and not the attention that will be brought to Provo on Saturday, he said that the preparation will be similar to how the team prepared for the Oklahoma game.

BYU's BCS Hopes

This weekend, my worst fear may have been realized when the new AP and Coaches polls were released. That is BYU most likely has no chance of going to a BCS bowl this year, even if they win the rest of their games.

This weekend, after what I felt was a solid win against a Colorado State football team that had been receiving votes in the polls, BYU football fell one spot in both the Coaches and the AP polls to 21 and 20 respectively. I was, quite honestly, surprised. I felt that the win showed that BYU was back on the right track and is still a powerful football team. In addition, four top twenty-five teams that were ranked ahead of BYU lost. However, of those teams only one of them fell below BYU in one poll (Mississippi). All of their losses were blowouts and the teams looked much worse than BYU did against FSU.

Here's the punchline. Big name programs hold on to their rankings better than BYU and voters won't put BYU back in a position that would allow them to play in a BCS game. Even if Boise State and Houston lose games and BYU beats TCU, the odds are that BYU won't ascend into the top 12 and therefore will not be allowed to play in a BCS bowl this year. Las Vegas Bowl, here we come ... for the fifth year in a row.

Road to the BCS

So, here come all the questions. What are the implications of this weekend's rivalry game between BYU and Utah? Obviously, for Utah, it means a MWC title and a BCS berth. The real question is this. If BYU wins, will it be enough to boost them above Boise St and give them a BCS berth. Your guess is as good as mine, but here is what I think.

Earlier in the year, no. 24 TCU beat no. 9 BYU. TCU essentially plays the same schedule as BYU with the exception of Oklahoma, who beat TCU. After beating BYU, TCU jumped nine spots to 15 in the USA Today's coaches poll. Now before you start doing the math (i.e. no. 14 BYU beats no. 7 Utah = jumping more than nine spots) remember that was mid-season. This game will be played at the end of the season. You may wonder what's the difference. Some even think that a win at the end of the season carries more weight.

It is true that a loss later in the season is harder to make up, but that doesn't necessarily mean that games later in the year carry more weight. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that they actually carry less. The BCS computer rankings use averages, therefore each game carries less and less weight as every other game is played. Let me give you an example.

Suppose you were to take the price of a hamburger in three different locations and find the average price. Let's say the prices are as follows:

location 1 - $3.50
location 2 - $3.25
location 3 - $7.50

The average of these burgers is $4.75, which means that obviously the burger in location 3 carries a lot of weight. Now let's add three more locations.

location 4 - $3.00
location 5 - $3.25
location 6 - $3.50

Now the average of all six locations is $4.00. So you can see that each location carries less weight. The same thing happens with BCS computer rankings. As you accumulate more games, each game carries less and less weight.

Therefore, I don't believe that BYU beating Utah will boost BYU enough in the computer polls to surpass Boise St. However, I think it would put BYU one rank below them.

But wait there are two other components to the BCS standings - the human voters in the coaches poll and the harris poll. This is where I think BYU will surpass Boise State. An impressive victory over a no. 7 Utah team will give BYU a stronger resume than Boise State, even if they do end up undefeated.

So my thoughts are, yes, BYU does still have a shot at the BCS. They are going to have to beat a decent Utah team, but I think they can do it.

Pre-Game Thoughts - San Diego State

I have put off writing this week's pre-game thoughts because, well it's San Diego State. I know that you are supposed to have respect for every opponent, but let's be honest. Does San Diego State have what it takes to really even make it a game.

Saturday the Cougars play their last home game of the season. They are 5-0 at home this season and it looks like they will be 6-0 at home by the end of Saturday afternoon. San Diego State has had a rough season, to say the least. Their low point was a 7-70 loss to the New Mexico Lobos. The closest they got in conference play was a heart breaking loss against Colorado State. Their final three games will probably prove to be their hardest ones of the season, at BYU, Utah, and UNLV. Their best chance is to beat a banged up UNLV team that doesn't have their star quarterback.

With TCU falling to Utah last night, a win for BYU would definitely put them about TCU in the BCS standings. It also means that BYU still has a shot at winning a share of the MWC if they beat Utah on November 22. Which brings me to an interesting question. If BYU, Utah, and TCU all end the season with one conference loss and essentially all tie for the MWC title, would any go to a BCS bowl?

Many analysts say that none would go to a BCS bowl because there would be no way to decide which to take. I, however, have a different oppinion. TCU will fall this week because of their loss to Utah. They won't fall far because it was a close game and Utah was ranked ahead of them, but TCU only has one game left this season. Their fall will probably push them at least to the lower teens and one win against Air Force won't be enough to get them back into the top 12, especially since they have two bye weeks when other teams will be playing.

Utah will move up in the polls this week, but probably not much. The top 8 are pretty solid, but one will definitely lose because Texas Tech and Oklahoma St play each other. Utah might jump one spot. I think when BYU plays in Salt Lake City, Utah will be 6th or 7th.

A win this week for BYU and a win against Air Force, will get BYU into the upper teens by November 22nd, probably 11 or 12. By this same time, if BSU keeps winning, they will probably stay around 9 or 10. I don't think voters will give them much more than that since the WAC is weak this year. With that being said, if BYU beats Utah, they could theoretically jump BSU in the BCS standings and end up as the top non-BCS qualifier. The selection committee would have no choice but to put BYU in a BCS bowl, because they would have earned the automatic berth being the highest ranked non-BCS conference champion.

Well that was a mouthful of a pre-game thought article, but it is a lot more interesting than talking about how much BYU is going to whoop SDSU by.

Predicted Score
BYU 42, SDSU 7

MWC Mix Up

I have been avoiding my blog for the past week, but realize now that I have to start writing again. After BYU deflating loss to TCU last week, I think everybody is Provo is down.

Although, getting BYU to a BCS bowl would take a small miracle, the MWC champion is still far from decided. Still in the running are Utah, TCU, Air Force, and BYU. Unfortunately for Air Force and BYU, they aren't completely in charge of their own destiny. Even if either BYU or Air Force win the remainder of its games, they could still end up in second place. BYU needs to beat Utah and have TCU lose. Air Force needs to beat TCU and have Utah lose. So you can see there is still quite a bit of football left to play that will decide the MWC champion.

So, here the question that everyone wants answered. Could BYU still go to a BCS bowl? The answer is yes. The odds are that they won't, but here's how things would have to work out for them to go. BYU first and foremost has to win the MWC. If they don't, there's no chance. If they win the MWC, that would mean they would have beat Utah in the last regular season game, which would put them ahead of Utah in the polls. If the win the MWC, that would mean that TCU lost and would also be behind BYU in the polls. Essentially, BYU should be the top MWC team in the polls. The only other non-BCS team would be Boise St. If Boise St. goes undefeated, they will probably end up higher in the polls than a one-loss MWC team, but with how weak the WAC is this year, people have said they could fall below a one-loss MWC team. If BYU could somehow leap frog Boise St. there is hope. The next question becomes, how high would BYU have to be ranked? This year is looking good for that question. Normally a non-BCS conference champ would have to be ranked 12 or above to earn the automatic berth. However, if they are ranked 16 or above and ranked higher than a champion of a BCS conference they get an automatic berth. This year the ACC and the Big East are struggling. It could easily end up that the champion of either of those conferences ends up below 16 in the final BCS standings.

That was a mouthful, but that's what would have to happen for BYU to get to a BCS bowl this year. I know it sounds impossible, but we can dream.

Pre-Game Thoughts - Utah State

This Friday the Cougars travel to Logan, where they hope to put up another dominating win on their journey to the BCS. The eighth ranked Cougars have pitched two straight shutouts in their last two outings and it's not unlikely to think that they could put up a third one this weekend.

Utah State finally got its first win last week against Idaho. Surprising to most people, USU actually looked pretty good in the second half, particularly in the fourth quarter. They scored three times making the score against Idaho, look pretty lopsided. USU racked up 580 total yards in the game, which is a season best for the USU offense.

USU's second half against Idaho, is probably the only thing that makes USU even look like they have a chance at beating BYU. Although I don't think USU has much of a chance against Max Hall and his arsenal of offensive weapons, after last week, we have learned that every team has to be prepared for every opponent. This doesn't exclude BYU from preparing for the Aggies.

Keys to the Game
Shut down the run. USU has made most of their yards they year on the ground. While BYU's defense has been tough on opponents, the run is the one weakness that could be expoloited by the right team.

Get Started Early. USU has shown that they can get at a team in the fourth quarter. BYU needs to jump out early and create a lead that can't be broken down in the fourth quarter.

Predicted Score
BYU 42, USU 0

Does USC's loss to the Beavers help BYU?

If you haven't heard yet, you must be brain dead, because it's been all over ESPN all day. Last night, the lowly Beavers of Oregon State took on the mighty Trojans and won. I won't recap the game for you. There are plenty of good reviews out there. Here is one.

So, the question becomes, "What does this mean for other teams around the country? (Especially BYU)" Well, it doesn't mean that we have to be worried about Oregon State jumping into the polls and creating competition for the BCS. They didn't look that good. USC just looked bad, real bad. To say they looked like a top 10 team would be an absolute lie. To say they looked like a top 25 team, would be a stretch. I estimate they will drop at least 9 spots in the polls this week. It should be more, but USC seems to have a pretty reliable following.

What this does for BYU and other BCS hopefuls is give them a little more hope this year. It is now very likely that we will see a national championship with two "one loss" teams. As the top SEC team play each other, they will inevitably knock each other off. So will the Big Ten and Big 12 teams. If BYU can complete the season undefeated, they can pretty much count on a BCS invitation.

Some say there is a chance of BYU playing in the national championship. As much, as I would like that to happen, I don't think it will. We would have to see all of the top 10 teams with two losses and BYU undefeated. BYU can and will go undefeated this year, but we won't see teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, and Florida with more than one loss.

What are your thoughts? How much does Oregon State's win help BYU?

Hall Getting National Heisman Attention

In a recent article about week 4 performances in college football, ESPN's Mark Schlabach mentioned Max Hall's name with the other Heisman candidates.

Since the beginning of the season, Max Hall's name has been thrown around in Provo as a Heisman candidate, but not much national attention has been shown. However, in today's article "On the Mark: Week 4" by Mark Schlabach, not only was the Mountain west conference mentioned a being better this year than the Pac-10, the ACC, and the Big East. Max Hall was also brought up as a candidate for this years Heisman trophy. Of course, leading BYU to a BCS game this year would certainly help his cause.

For the complete article click here.

Analysts put BYU in the BCS

Last week, ESPN analyst, Mark Schlabach, predicted that BYU would face up against Georgia in this years Allstate Sugar Bowl. This week, his co-worker, Joe Fieldman, has joined in with similar feelings. Joe put BYU in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl against the the Sooners of Oklahoma. Complete bowl predictions can be found here.

With the way BYU is playing, its hard to not see national attention. In the past two games the extremely efficient BYU offense has scored a combined 103 points and the defense has allowed 0 points. That's right two shutouts in a row, and with Utah State on the way there is a good chance it could end up being three shutouts in a row.

If the two shutouts don't grab your attention, check out the season stats for the defense. In four games the BYU defense has caused 8 fumbles and intercepted 4 passes. The defense has scored twice (fumble recovery ran in for touchdown, interception ran back for touchdown). But overall, how's this stat for you. The defense only gives up an average 11 points per game. Its counterpart offense scores an average of 43 points per game. This combination makes BYU nearly a tough opponent on either side of the ball.

Thank you national media for finally giving BYU the recognition it deserves.

BYU a BCS Contender

Watch out BCS, BYU is coming at you. In recent bowl predictions, BYU was found in the Allstate Sugar Bowl against Georgia. This is the first regular season prediction that has BYU in a BCS bowl, but keep watching. As the season progresses, you'll see plenty more.

BYU only non-BCS team that can bust the BCS

ESPN The Magazine has release the statistics that from all of the previous BCS busters since 2003. They have marked the key attributes that were in common with all of the previous BCS busters they year before they went to the big dance. This year BYU is the only team that has all of the these key attributes. Here are what they say it takes to get the a BCS bowl if you are from a non-BCS conference. Last year, you must have:

1. Averaged 31 points or better per game.
2. Allowed fewer than 400 yards of offense per game.
3. Had either a 2,950 yard passer or a 1,700 yard rusher.
4. Had two or fewer regular season loses.

BYU hits the mark in all of these categories and ESPN the magazine predicts they will bust the BCS this year. Go Cougars!