MWC Mix Up

I have been avoiding my blog for the past week, but realize now that I have to start writing again. After BYU deflating loss to TCU last week, I think everybody is Provo is down.

Although, getting BYU to a BCS bowl would take a small miracle, the MWC champion is still far from decided. Still in the running are Utah, TCU, Air Force, and BYU. Unfortunately for Air Force and BYU, they aren't completely in charge of their own destiny. Even if either BYU or Air Force win the remainder of its games, they could still end up in second place. BYU needs to beat Utah and have TCU lose. Air Force needs to beat TCU and have Utah lose. So you can see there is still quite a bit of football left to play that will decide the MWC champion.

So, here the question that everyone wants answered. Could BYU still go to a BCS bowl? The answer is yes. The odds are that they won't, but here's how things would have to work out for them to go. BYU first and foremost has to win the MWC. If they don't, there's no chance. If they win the MWC, that would mean they would have beat Utah in the last regular season game, which would put them ahead of Utah in the polls. If the win the MWC, that would mean that TCU lost and would also be behind BYU in the polls. Essentially, BYU should be the top MWC team in the polls. The only other non-BCS team would be Boise St. If Boise St. goes undefeated, they will probably end up higher in the polls than a one-loss MWC team, but with how weak the WAC is this year, people have said they could fall below a one-loss MWC team. If BYU could somehow leap frog Boise St. there is hope. The next question becomes, how high would BYU have to be ranked? This year is looking good for that question. Normally a non-BCS conference champ would have to be ranked 12 or above to earn the automatic berth. However, if they are ranked 16 or above and ranked higher than a champion of a BCS conference they get an automatic berth. This year the ACC and the Big East are struggling. It could easily end up that the champion of either of those conferences ends up below 16 in the final BCS standings.

That was a mouthful, but that's what would have to happen for BYU to get to a BCS bowl this year. I know it sounds impossible, but we can dream.

ESPN Showcasing BYU

Checkout the front page of ESPN.com. The lead article showcase's BYU as the top non-BCS school in the country and one of ESPN's top picks for the 2008 season.

This picture was actually from earlier today. The picture has moved to the bottom of the page, but it can still be seen along with other pictures of Max Hall. Apparently BYU's match-up tonight against TCU is one deserving of national attention. Obviously it is, this game and the November 22 clash against Utah will decide the fate of BYU in the BCS. It's nice to see BYU getting some of the attention it deserves.

Below are the links to ESPN's current articles about BYU.
Hall poised to become one of BYU's best QBs
Breaking the huddle at the season's halfway point

BYU at TCU, Pregame Thoughts

Thursday's match-up between BYU and TCU will is shaping up to be the most important game BYU will play until November 22, when the Cougars face their in-state rival the Utes. TCU has once again proved it deserves national recognition by jumping back into the Coaches poll. They currently sit at number 24, which makes this game that much better for BYU's BCS hopes.

Last week, the Cougars faced a powerful rushing offense in the New Mexico Lobos. It gave the BYU defense some difficulties, but their "bend, but don't break" philosophy seemed to work well for them. Although they gave up 285 total yards, they only gave up 3 points on the score board.

TCU has a similar run game, but struggled against a rebuilding Colorado St. team last week. Their high powered run offense was limited to only 13 points on two scores, all of which came in the first half.

This game will be BYU's first real test against a team that deserves all the hype they are given before the game. UCLA was supposed to be a tough team that would give the Cougars trouble. 59-0 made UCLA look like a Jr. College team. Since then the Bruins haven't done much and will be lucky to end the season as a mediocre Pac-10 team. TCU is different. They have already proved that they deserve the attention they are getting. Their only lose was to then no. 1 Oklahoma, who very much deserved to be no. 1 at the time. (The evidence is that they only dropped a few spots after their loss to Texas.)

Even though there are those out there that favor TCU, I believe BYU can and will pull it off on Thursday.

Keys to the Game (Similar to New Mexico)
Run Defense
TCU is good on the ground, maybe better than New Mexico. The "bend, but don't break" philosophy won't work against TCU. If BYU allows TCU to have ground yardage, they will score. If they can't run, TCU has a hard time passing.

Quick Start
We saw how BYU struggled agains't New Mexico, when they didn't score first. It is imperative they score first. I would say, if BYU wins the coin toss they should want to recieve.

Two-dimensional Offense
BYU needs to establish a run game and a pass game. TCU's defense is too good. If they stop one of BYU's offensive attacks, BYU won't stand a chance with the other. They have to keep the defense honest.

Predicted Score
BYU 31, TCU 27